An Opinion poll in today's Independent by Com Res has put the Tories 11 points ahead of Labour enough to get a small majority if an election was held tomorrow.
The poll which places the Tories ahead on 41%, Labour second on 30% and the Lib Dems on 17% will make worrying reading for Gordon Brown, not just because of the overall results but because it shows the Tories ahead of Labour in every region bar Scotland.
The Lib Dems whose overall poll position hasn't changed since the last Com Res poll will be boosted by the fact that 80% of their identifiers say they will vote for the party at the next election.
This poll shows the first sign of a backlash against Labour for their handling of the Northern Rock crisis and its nationalisation and perhaps shows how much of an albatross the bank could become for the Labour Party, with much banking on the success of the bank for the Labour Government.
David Cameron will have to be careful about reading too much into this one poll, but if these polling figures are repeated in polls such as ICM, which generally higher polling figures, and the Lib Dems and Labour does badly in May's local elections, in particular the Mayoral election in London; then Brown could be facing the same fate as Jim Callaghan who dithered over calling an election when it could have been won and in the end lost in '79 to Thatcher leading to 18 years of Tory rule. For Brown it's not too late to save his Premiership, but he'll have to turn the tide pretty fast.
-Adam Evans, Chief Political Correspondent
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