The 2008 Presidential election has already proved to be a compelling and divisive one for both parties with the Democrats at the moment appearing to be split 50:50 between Obama and Clinton and the GOP facing an even deeper division between moderates and the conservative right on the future direction of the party. So with the results of the Potomac Primary at hand let’s reflect on how the race for the Democrat nomination has developed.
The early front runner, the clever political veteran and former First Lady, Sr. Hilary Rodham Clinton (D-NY), whom many believed last year would have already sealed the nomination has found the battle a lot more difficult against the young, talented and captivating junior Senator for Illinois Barack Obama, in fact out of 34 contests Obama has won 23 and is narrowly ahead of her in the number of delegates. So why is she still hanging on in the race? It is because on Super Tuesday the “national primary” she managed to win the delegate rich states of California, New York and New Jersey on a night when Obama won most other states. She still has a good chance because she has been up to now the candidate who has won the “beer vote”: elderly, women, Hispanics and blue collar workers all of whom represent the base of the Democratic Party and are influential sections of the electorate who have found her campaign based on experience and a knowledge of how to use the machinery of Washington. Obama, on the other hand, has been successful with the wine vote: independents, highly educated, better off, blacks and young people which have allowed him to build a solid base in order to gather more and more votes, but they are not as big a chunk of the party electorate as Clinton’s base, however he has energised them and a great deal of other Americans through his charismatic oratory and message of change, hope and of a united America.
However, the dynamics of the race since Super Tuesday are beginning to change for both candidates, Clinton pulled off the big wins but failed to use a night which should have greatly favoured her to pull clear of Obama and perhaps deliver a knock out blow and since then Obama has won 8 contests in a row and actually becoming the candidate with the most delegates. Clinton has seen her base of support shrink with the white vote evenly split in the Potomac Primaries last night and she is beginning to lose the votes of females while Obama is starting not just to attract a significant number of Hilary’s supporters but is in fact gaining more voters from within his base of support with 9/10 blacks voting for him in Virginia. Clinton is also suffering in the money game with Obama taking around $1million a day in January scooping over $30million dollars for that month, Hilary on the other hand had to give $5million of her own money in order to compete. That is a worrying sign for Clinton as money is a key component of modern US politics and the lack of people willing to back her currently isn’t a vote of confidence in her candidacy. She may also be in peril due to her relying like fellow New Yorker and now former GOP candidate, Rudy Giuliani, on the big states to reward her handsomely with big wins now imperative on big states such as Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania in order to remain in the contest.
So, from that you might think it is all going Obama’s way and he’ll end up as the Democrat nominee. Well it isn’t that simple, he has momentum which should lead to him winning Wisconsin on the 19th, but never rule out a Clinton, she has showed what she can do when as the supposed underdog she pulled off a shock win in New Hampshire and unlike Obama she has the support of a majority of Hispanic voters which will be vital in Texas where they make up a significant proportion of the electorate. However, this reliance on the Hispanic vote could be her downfall if Obama can woo them onto his side at the last minute. In truth nothing is certain in the Democrat race apart from one thing: it could go either way and there are plenty more twists and turns in the road ahead.
- Adam
No comments:
Post a Comment